The recent victory of
Gael Monfils in Metz
WON 11/4 not only added another winner to our list of
outright betting successes for 2009 (
see full list here) but quite possibly marked a turning point in ther career of the 23-year-old French player.
The former world junior No.1, who won three junior Grand Slam titles in 2004 (Australian Open, French Open & Wimbledon), has clearly failed to progress and subsequently emulate the success of his contempories. And whilst Nadal, Murray, Djokovic and Del Potro have all gone on to establish themselves at the top of the men's game, winning multiple titles apiece, up to his win in the Moselle Open, Monfils had only a solitary title to his name - Sopot way back in 2005.
Blessed with ability, Monfils still has time to change his fortunes around. A current ranking within the top 20 could easily be elevated to a regular spot inside the top 10 - if only that potential were turned into titles.
The table opposite illustrates this point as Monfils, despite a current mark of 13, has a miserable conversion rate of 25% in ATP Tour finals. A record of played 8, won 2, says it all about his current predicament. Maybe more so about his state of mind and mental toughness up to this point. Having won in Poland back in 2005, Monfils lost his next 5 tour deciders, often to players he should have beaten (Almagro, Monaco & Petzschner)
Fallers at the final hurdle
As students of the formbook we should be aware of players such as the Frenchman. Those who lose finals, or those who surprisingly don't reach all that many championship matches to begin with, despite a lofty ranking. Should they really deserve their often short odds in the betting market?
Fernando Verdasco 37.5%, Robin Soderling 36.3%, Sam Querrey, Igor Andreev & Juan Monaco 33.3%, Stanislas Wawrinka 16.67%, Jurgen Melzer 14.29%. All these players have very low win/loss ratios in tour finals. Moreover, given that they have played numerous finals between them they can't all use the excuse that they just happened to play a better player on the day. Many times they have lost to opponents below them in the world rankings - e.g. this year alone, Querrey losing to Rajeev Ram (Newport), Monaco to Montanes (Bucharest), Verdasco to Stepanek (Brisbane).
The players to turn to in the big games
By the same token, players such as Marin Cilic 100%, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 80%, Juan Martin Del Potro 77.7%, Nikolay Davydenko 76.1% and Gilles Simon 71.4% all have very respectable win percentages for players outside of the top four. They are the guys, so say the statistics, to rely upon when the pressure is on.
And what of the 'Big Four'? How do they stack up? Naturally, they win a lot of finals as that explains their lofty ranking but whilst Federer, Nadal and even Murray all boast impressive records - given the number of finals they have contested, often against each other - the surprise is Novak Djokovic. A lowly 54.1% conversion rate in finals is very poor for the Serbian player about whom, it has often been said, there are doubts regarding his mental toughness - such a figure shows why these rumours persist.
The beauty of tennis betting is that it is a 1-2-1 sport. The form is very reliable in this respect as there are no team considerations, no cars or horses to hamper, or falsely inflate, performance and just enough variation of conditions (i.e. surface) to allow accurate form study to give backers a real edge.
With information such as this you can piece together much better profiles of players and use that knowledge to gain significantly more value when you select your bets.
