It may come as something of a surprise but prior to the recent win of
Nikolay Davydenko in the BMW Open, the oldest player to win on the ATP Tour this year was none other than
Roger Federer - aged just 29 years old.
In fact, statistically speaking, the Swiss player should be viewed as something of an antique on the global tennis roadshow... the best days are well and truly behind the former world No.1 and arguably greatest player ever to pick up a racquet.
And the evidence is there for all to see as Federer, who won 11 titles in 2004, another 11 titles in 2005 and then a further 12 in 2006 - a period of total domination which included no fewer than 8 Grand Slams and
a haul of 11 Masters Series - has managed just one win so far this year. A
rather poor return for a player still considered as being very much one of the
elite players of the modern game.
That solitary triumph in Qatar back in January, aged 29 years 154 days, won't be the last which Federer adds to a list which numbers 67 to date but it highlights a very important factor in tennis betting, namely the age of players (Read The Art Of Outright Tennis Betting: Lesson 4 - Age for more). Not so much in winning individual matches but with regards to winning specific tournaments.
Age Is A Defining Factor
Of course players can continue to win events far beyond Federer's current age (Andre Agassi held the No.1 spot in the rankings well past his 33rd birthday) but many punters mistakenly put tennis players into the same category as, say, footballers - still able to play to a high level after the age of 30 ... this very rarely happens.
Federer must now be viewed very much as the elder statesman of the ATP, certainly amongst the leading quartet of players where Nadal (24), Djokovic and Murray (both 23) can be said to still have some of their most productive years ahead of them. It's more 'Roger and out' for the player who currently boasts the most Grand Slam titles but may well find that record erased from the record books by a younger man.
Worth noting that of Federer's 16 Grand Slam titles, the Swiss maestro won eight before his 25th birthday and has won a further eight times since ... Rafael Nadal doesn't turn 25 until June 3rd of this year and should he celebrate this anniversary with another French Open title then the Spaniard will move his
collection of major trophies into double figures. A mere six behind Federer with the best part of four years in hand
of his older rival.
Drifting In The Markets
Traders aren't blind to the ageing process. Federer has steadily drifted in the betting for major championships as his increasing age and decreasing performances have progressed at an almost identical rate.
After another failure in the Rome Masters, just before Roland Garros, he was out to
16/1 for the French Open, a tournament he won barely two years ago.
The question remains whether, in the modern game, we can expect to see a player winning a Grand Slam title beyond the magical 30 barrier. The last player to do so was Andre Agassi (then aged 32) at the Australian Open in 2003 ... and the Las Vegan also won in Melbourne back in 2001 shortly after blowing out the candles on his 30th birthday cake.
Every now and again players do maintain their form and fitness - and, it must be said, have a little bit of good fortune - but it's surely impossible for Ken Rosewall's Australian Open win of 1972 (aged 37 years, 62 days) to be surpassed by any future Slam winner - even if Jonas Bjorkman made the Wimbledon SF's in 2006 when some 34 years young.
After many highly productive years on the men's ATP Tour it's almost time for Federer to be regarded as yesterday's man and, in terms of betting, he's certainly one to view with a great deal of caution
(unless, that is, the layers chalk him up at a price which simply can't be
ignored).
He might win again, of course, but the question remains as to whether there is any great value in backing the Swiss player at the likes of Wimbledon and the US Open. There isn't.
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