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| Juan Martin Del Potro won his only Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows in 2009 |
There's an impression amongst tennis followers that the
US Open, the final Grand Slam of the year, is a tournament where 'breakthrough players' can often win their first major title.
It's a bit like the USPGA in golf... stuck away at the end of a long hard season, the form can often be unreliable. Just take a look at Keegan Bradley's recent 150/1 win in the golf at John's Creek, Atlanta.
The perception is that leading names can be a bit 'over-played' for the year, maybe carrying injuries or general tour fatigue, it's not the biggest of the 'major events' as well... and given these circumstances shocks and surprises are more likely to occur.
And this argument certainly has some credibility.
What Do The Stats Tell Us?
In the last 20 years, first time winners at the Flushing Meadows Tennis Center in New York include Pat Rafter (1997), Marat Safin (2000), Lleyton Hewitt (2001), Andy Roddick (2003) and Juan Martin Del Potro (2009). That means a healthy 25% of the winners were first time Grand Slam tennis champions.
However, when you actually check the data, you find it's the same figure for Wimbledon. Five of the last 20 winners at SW19 were winning a Slam for the first time (Michael Stich, Andre Agassi, Richard Krajicek, Goran Ivanisevic and Roger Federer).
And at the French Open, the rate of new champions is staggering. The Roland Garros roll of honour since 1991 includes no fewer than 10 first time Grand Slam winners.
That means 50% of the champions in Paris had never won a major before. Some tough ask to find the winner... well, before Rafael Nadal showed up on the ATP Tour!
Jim Courier, Sergi Bruguera, Thomas Muster, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Gustavo Kuerten, Carlos Moya, Albert Costa, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Gaston Gaudio and, of course, Rafa... that's some list.
But by comparison, the Australian Open - an early season event, in a remote location, where you really might expect to see shocks - has only delivered three maiden winners in the last two decades. Petr Korda, Thomas Johansson and Novak Djokovic.
So maybe in the 2011 US Open we should expect to see something unfamiliar... a lack of any major surprise.
Will It Be Another 'Big Three' Shut-Out?
Maybe so. In the last five years the 19 majors have been won by Rafael Nadal (8), Roger Federer (7), Novak Djokovic (3) with just the one first time winner, admittedly here in New York, Juan Martin Del Potro.
There has been an ever-strengthening stranglehold on the top prizes by the sport's top players. Guys like Del Potro, Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych, Robin Soderling have made a final here and there but it's the 'usual suspects' who tend to feature when it comes to trophy engraving time.
Barring miracles Djokovic (6/4) will go off a warm favourite when the action starts in New York on August 29th with Nadal (7/2) and Federer (6/1) playing catch-up... for a change!
We can't wait for the action to get started and once it does we'll look to add to our tremendous record of Grand Slam success in 2011 with Djokovic W8/1, Nadal W11/10 and Kvitova W12/1 just some of our major winners.
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